The Handwriting on the Wall

When Israel suffered the spate of bombings in the spring of 2002, the US and the rest of the world demanded restraint. Supporters of Israel were dumbfounded. They need not have been. A process was being worked on by the State Department in consultation with others to force a compromise solution on the Palestinians and the Israelis. Retaliation made it more difficult to achieve.

Since Arafat walked away from Barak's offer and resorted to greatly increased violence, the EU and the UN kept repeating that the Palestinians must be given "hope", that they must have a "political horizon". Why this was necessary when they were already offered a state I'll never know and no one seemed to care. Since when is anyone ever guaranteed the outcome of negotiations?

The lack of logic in support of such an idea should have told us that the fix was in; a Palestinian State was in the cards. Accordingly, the UNSC passed a resolution in March of '02 in support of such a state and in July, Bush expressed his vision of a Palestinian state albeit with many caveats. The US was already working on a new administration for the PA and consented to Arafat being marginalized and kept in Ramallah. Sharon was already in discussions with Abu Mazen and the CIA with Dahlan. And low and behold Abu Mazen is now PM can you imagine that. and Dahlan is in charge of security. True that Arafat has a thing to say about all that but, mark my words, not for long.

Although other administrations in the past had declared the settlements illegal or at least an obstacle to peace, this message was driven home by none other than Wolfowitz who said as much at a huge rally in support of Israel in Washington. In September Douglas Feith also said they must be removed. Once again the handwriting was on the wall. This was another pillar in the new deal that was being worked out.

Keep in mind that all throughout the year, Sharon and his entourage made many trips to Washington to participate in working out the details. Also the Minister of Defence at the time and Sharon kept referring to a Gaza first option in which the PA would take over security in one place at a time and the IDF would withdraw. So this too has been in the works for a long time and it is once again on the front burner.

The Roadmap, which was recently released, merely formalized these principles. It didn't matter that Israel or the Palestinians didn't agree to it fully. The Roadmap simply increased their acceptance allowing everyone to work toward them. They were no longer just trial balloons; they were the official policies of the world.

Sharon expressed that:
1. Occupation of Palestinians was a bad thing,
2. It was time to divide the land,
3. A Palestinian state was inevitable and
4. It would be contiguous.
All this had been agreed upon last year.

Now the piece de resistance, an international force to separate the parties. Arafat has always wanted international monitors but not until recently did the world community take up the call for same with any conviction. Mark my words; it won't be long before it is a reality.
The US will defeat the forces of terror in the territories and the ME generally. At the moment it is said that of course, such a force can't be provided unless both sides agree. But America is working to put Mazen and Dahlan in a position to deal with the terrorists. How is this to happen?

For one thing the Roadmap provides for a Palestinian state to be recognized this year with provisional borders. Not, as you might think, a provisional state with provisional borders. This would open the way for Mazen to invite international forces into its territory to help crush the terrorists. Israel would not have to agree but would welcome them as long as they were restricted to the provisional borders.

Bit by bit, step by the step, the plan to which Sharon has agreed is unfolding.

Once this is all accomplished and the final issues are being "freely" negotiated, what has been predetermined? Obviously the Palestinians won't be able to resort to violence to achieve their demands. Will Sharon be permitted to insist on a large part of the remaining territories and Jerusalem remaining with Israel? or that there be no return or that the state be demilitarized etc. If Israel is really entitled to free negations, the Palestinians have been snookered and the situation could go on for decades.

But perhaps that's too much to hope for. Time will tell.